Let’s Talk Real Estate – April 2020
In Southern Oregon, you hear a lot about a “summer selling season” for real estate, or you hear it’s best to list your home in the winter when there is less competition. Both statements have a ring of truth, but there’s a lot more behind the numbers.
The year generally starts out slowly, and you can see from the chart that last year, 718 existing homes sold in the first quarter, taking an average of 51 days to sell. (Interesting note: 2020 started with less than 800 existing homes for sale). It is true there isn’t much for sale in the first quarter. You can also see that we averaged less than 1,000 homes for sale but low inventory didn’t help sellers or buyers. Even with low inventory, only 24% of the homes sold, taking an average of 51 days to sell.
Then comes spring and summer when the majority of sellers list their homes, and the buyers have the greatest selection. Many sellers don’t want to list their homes until the grass turns green, the blossoms bloom and the sun comes out to stay. By far, we have our greatest selection in spring and fall, which is good for buyers, and we have the most buyers which is good for sellers. You can see that over 1,100 homes sold in both spring and summer and buyers had over 1200 homes to choose from. Bottom line: about 30% of all homes for sale in spring and summer sold, and they sold, on average, in 43 days.
Lastly, fall rolls around and a lot of homes that were for sale, have sold. We still have a large number of buyers, but the buyers have less homes for sale to choose from. Last year, existing homes for sale dropped to 783 by December, and a record 37% of them sold in about 48 days! For buyers, there isn’t much selection, but for sellers, fall has the highest percentage of homes sold.
Being that the largest percentage of homes that are listed sell in the 4th quarter, you might think that fall is the best time to list your home for sale—but, there is one more equation. The price of the home being listed is a huge factor in determining how long it will need to be on the market before finding the right buyer. If a home is over $400,000 or $500,000, the average number of times you need to show your home before you find the right buyer is huge. Southern Oregon is a small area and we have a thriving real estate market, but higher-end homes are a niche and it takes time to find the right buyer. In Jacksonville and Ashland, it takes over 26 showings before you get an offer. This is because homes in Jacksonville and Ashland average well over $400,000 where the buyers are limited. In many cases, it takes six to eight months to find the right buyer and it will take six to eight months before you have 26 interested buyers.
If you are selling a home for under $300,000, the best time to list it could be in the winter where there is the least amount of competition, spring and summer where there is the largest number of homes sold or fall when the percentage sold is the highest. If your home is going to be listed for over $400,000, get it on the market in early spring when we start having our largest numbers of buyers. Don’t count on it selling in a month, look at the numbers of showings needed before the right buyer is found and plan for that.
